To me, it's looking more and more like the Democratic pick for VP will be Tim Kaine from Virginia.
For starters, Obama and Governor Kaine are true friends. Kaine was one of the first public officials to endorse Obama. I listened to the Governor give an enthusiastic introduction for Barack when he spoke in Charlottesville last year. Obama went thanked everyone and went on to say that in politics you have your allies and you have your friends. "Tim Kaine is a true friend," he said.
Strategically, picking Kaine accomplishes two things in my mind -- backing a black candidate whose campaign theme is "Change" with a squeaky clean white guy as well as emphasizing domestic and social issues that inherently benefit Democrats.
Tim Kaine is squeaky clean. His opponents know this. And since the first axiom of VP picks is "Do No Harm," it's nice to know that there are no skeletons hiding in the closet. Also, having a smiling white face next to a smiling black face will do more to ally racial anxieties (both real and perceived) than any speech Obama could ever give. It also helps that Kaine is familiar with the people and the culture of a state like Virginia -- at the crossroads of modernity, ready for change so long as it respects the revered traditions of the past, with swaths of suburban sprawl, urban centers, and rural areas. He can speak to everyone's concerns. He's a safe pick.
Strategically, other picks like Jim Webb and Jack Reed look appealing because they stand strong on issues of national security. Over the last couple weeks, I think Obama has shown that he can fight John McCain to a draw on matters of national security and defense. His calls for refocusing on Afghanistan have proven prescient. And so picking a hard-ass military dude is unnecessarily defnesive. It reeks of capitulation to the "Republicans are stronger on defense" myth. Picking Governor Kaine is an offensive move that brings to the fore domestic concerns about economic insecurity, health care coverage, and education overhaul. Although Kaine is not a terribly well-known figure on the national scene, this very fact helps Obama's theme of "Washington is broken. We need a new kind of politics." So while being a safe pick personally, Tim Kaine is a bold pick strategically for the Democrats. And it's about time Democrats stopped being such instinctually defensive and neurotic wussies.
Some other miscellaneous pros and cons. Picking Kaine does nothing to bridge the gap to the aging feminist, rabid Hillary-supporting crowd. Hillary's going to have to suck it up and do that work herself. Picking Kathleen Sebelius would help in this respect, but I think having the first black President with the first female Vice President would bring too much unnecessary anxiety: in the South and in the media. Another huge pro is that Virginia, for the first time in four decades, has the chance of swinging into the Dem column this year. To do so, they'll need massive turnout in places like Richmond, Charlottesville, and NoVa -- places where Kaine is pretty popular. Picking Kaine has the negative side effect of leaving the VA Governorship vacant, but you gotta break some eggs to make an omelette. On that note, my bet for Dem VP is Tim Kaine of Virginia.
